How Do Mathemeticians In U.S Intelligence Explain The Probability Of This?

Recently it was reported that Intelligence Agencies' review of Havana Syndrome concluded that it was not caused by a foreign adversary, nor a weapon and likely came from sources such as crickets, air conditioners, psychological issues or other environmental factors. The CIA doctor investigating Havana Syndrome came down with Havana Syndrome as he was investigating the phenomena. I’m not a mathematician but I’m sure there’s plenty in intelligence world. What’s the probability of this and it not being some applied technology.

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